Deep Learning for Forecasting Stock Returns in the Cross-Section

Many studies have been undertaken by using machine learning techniques, including neural networks, to predict stock returns. Recently, a method known as deep learning, which achieves high performance mainly in image recognition and speech recognition, has attracted attention in the machine learning field. This paper implements deep learning to predict one-month-ahead stock returns in the cross-section in the Japanese stock market and investigates the performance of the method. Our results show that deep neural networks generally outperform shallow neural networks, and the best networks also outperform representative machine learning models. These results indicate that deep learning shows promise as a skillful machine learning method to predict stock returns in the cross-section.Comment: 12 pages, 2 figures, 8 tables, accepted at PAKDD 201

Securing recruitment and obtaining informed consent in minority ethnic groups in the UK

Background: Previous health research has often explicitly excluded individuals from minority ethnic backgrounds due to perceived cultural and communication difficulties, including studies where there might be language/literacy problems in obtaining informed consent. This study addressed these difficulties by developing audio-recorded methods of obtaining informed consent and recording data. This report outlines 1) our experiences with securing recruitment to a qualitative study investigating alternative methods of data collection, and 2) the development of a standardised process for obtaining informed consent from individuals from minority ethnic backgrounds whose main language does not have an agreed written form. Methods: Two researchers from South Asian backgrounds recruited adults with Type 2 diabetes whose main language was spoken and not written, to attend a series of focus groups. A screening tool was used at recruitment in order to assess literacy skills in potential participants. Informed consent was obtained using audio-recordings of the patient information and recording patients' verbal consent. Participants' perceptions of this method of obtaining consent were recorded. Results: Recruitment rates were improved by using telephone compared to face-to-face methods. The screening tool was found to be acceptable by all potential participants. Audio-recorded methods of obtaining informed consent were easy to implement and accepted by all participants. Attrition rates differed according to ethnic group. Snowballing techniques only partly improved participation rates. Conclusion: Audio-recorded methods of obtaining informed consent are an acceptable alternative to written consent in study populations where literacy skills are variable. Further exploration of issues relating to attrition is required, and a range of methods may be necessary in order to maximise response and participation

Rhomboid family member 2 regulates cytoskeletal stress-associated Keratin 16.

Keratin 16 (K16) is a cytoskeletal scaffolding protein highly expressed at pressure-bearing sites of the mammalian footpad. It can be induced in hyperproliferative states such as wound healing, inflammation and cancer. Here we show that the inactive rhomboid protease RHBDF2 (iRHOM2) regulates thickening of the footpad epidermis through its interaction with K16. K16 expression is absent in the thinned footpads of irhom2-/- mice compared with irhom2+/+mice, due to reduced keratinocyte proliferation. Gain-of-function mutations in iRHOM2 underlie Tylosis with oesophageal cancer (TOC), characterized by palmoplantar thickening, upregulate K16 with robust downregulation of its type II keratin binding partner, K6. By orchestrating the remodelling and turnover of K16, and uncoupling it from K6, iRHOM2 regulates the epithelial response to physical stress. These findings contribute to our understanding of the molecular mechanisms underlying hyperproliferation of the palmoplantar epidermis in both physiological and disease states, and how this 'stress' keratin is regulated

Recent advances in electronic structure theory and their influence on the accuracy of ab initio potential energy surfaces

Recent advances in electronic structure theory and the availability of high speed vector processors have substantially increased the accuracy of ab initio potential energy surfaces. The recently developed atomic natural orbital approach for basis set contraction has reduced both the basis set incompleteness and superposition errors in molecular calculations. Furthermore, full CI calculations can often be used to calibrate a CASSCF/MRCI approach that quantitatively accounts for the valence correlation energy. These computational advances also provide a vehicle for systematically improving the calculations and for estimating the residual error in the calculations. Calculations on selected diatomic and triatomic systems will be used to illustrate the accuracy that currently can be achieved for molecular systems. In particular, the F+H2 yields HF+H potential energy hypersurface is used to illustrate the impact of these computational advances on the calculation of potential energy surfaces

Arterial oxygen content is precisely maintained by graded erythrocytotic responses in settings of high/normal serum iron levels, and predicts exercise capacity: an observational study of hypoxaemic patients with pulmonary arteriovenous malformations.

Oxygen, haemoglobin and cardiac output are integrated components of oxygen transport: each gram of haemoglobin transports 1.34 mls of oxygen in the blood. Low arterial partial pressure of oxygen (PaO2), and haemoglobin saturation (SaO2), are the indices used in clinical assessments, and usually result from low inspired oxygen concentrations, or alveolar/airways disease. Our objective was to examine low blood oxygen/haemoglobin relationships in chronically compensated states without concurrent hypoxic pulmonary vasoreactivity.165 consecutive unselected patients with pulmonary arteriovenous malformations were studied, in 98 cases, pre/post embolisation treatment. 159 (96%) had hereditary haemorrhagic telangiectasia. Arterial oxygen content was calculated by SaO2 x haemoglobin x 1.34/100.There was wide variation in SaO2 on air (78.5-99, median 95)% but due to secondary erythrocytosis and resultant polycythaemia, SaO2 explained only 0.1% of the variance in arterial oxygen content per unit blood volume. Secondary erythrocytosis was achievable with low iron stores, but only if serum iron was high-normal: Low serum iron levels were associated with reduced haemoglobin per erythrocyte, and overall arterial oxygen content was lower in iron deficient patients (median 16.0 [IQR 14.9, 17.4]mls/dL compared to 18.8 [IQR 17.4, 20.1]mls/dL, p<0.0001). Exercise tolerance appeared unrelated to SaO2 but was significantly worse in patients with lower oxygen content (p<0.0001). A pre-defined athletic group had higher Hb:SaO2 and serum iron:ferritin ratios than non-athletes with normal exercise capacity. PAVM embolisation increased SaO2, but arterial oxygen content was precisely restored by a subsequent fall in haemoglobin: 86 (87.8%) patients reported no change in exercise tolerance at post-embolisation follow-up.Haemoglobin and oxygen measurements in isolation do not indicate the more physiologically relevant oxygen content per unit blood volume. This can be maintained for SaO2 ≥78.5%, and resets to the same arterial oxygen content after correction of hypoxaemia. Serum iron concentrations, not ferritin, seem to predict more successful polycythaemic responses

Expanding dispersal studies at hydrothermal vents through species identification of cryptic larval forms

Author Posting. © The Author(s), 2010. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here by permission of Springer for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Marine Biology 157 (2010): 1049-1062, doi:10.1007/s00227-009-1386-8.The rapid identification of hydrothermal vent-endemic larvae to the species level is a key limitation to understanding the dynamic processes that control the abundance and distribution of fauna in such a patchy and ephemeral environment. Many larval forms collected near vents, even those in groups such as gastropods that often form a morphologically distinct larval shell, have not been identified to species. We present a staged approach that combines morphological and molecular identification to optimize the capability, efficiency, and economy of identifying vent gastropod larvae from the northern East Pacific Rise (NEPR). With this approach, 15 new larval forms can be identified to species. A total of 33 of the 41 gastropod species inhabiting the NEPR, and 26 of the 27 gastropod species known to occur specifically in the 9° 50’ N region, can be identified to species. Morphological identification efforts are improved by new protoconch descriptions for Gorgoleptis spiralis, Lepetodrilus pustulosus, Nodopelta subnoda, and Echinopelta fistulosa. Even with these new morphological descriptions, the majority of lepetodrilids and peltospirids require molecular identification. Restriction fragment length polymorphism digests are presented as an economical method for identification of five species of Lepetodrilus and six species of peltospirids. The remaining unidentifiable specimens can be assigned to species by comparison to an expanded database of 18S ribosomal DNA. The broad utility of the staged approach was exemplified by the revelation of species-level variation in daily planktonic samples and the identification and characterization of egg capsules belonging to a conid gastropod Gymnobela sp. A. The improved molecular and morphological capabilities nearly double the number of species amenable to field studies of dispersal and population connectivity.Funding was provided by as Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution Deep Ocean Exploration Institute grant to L.M and S. Beaulieu, National Science Foundation grants OCE-0424953, OCE-9712233, and OCE-9619605 to L.M, OCE-0327261 to T.S., and OCE-0002458 to K. Von Damm, and a National Defense Science and Engineering Graduate fellowship to D.A

Mechanisms of Action of Currently Prescribed and Newly Developed Antiepileptic Drugs

Clinically available antiepileptic drugs (AEDs) decrease membrane excitability by interacting with neurotransmitter receptors or ion channels. AEDs developed before 1980 appear to act on sodium (Na) channels, -y-aminobutyric acid A (GABA A ) receptors, or calcium (Ca) channels. Benzodiazepines and barbiturates enhance GABA A -receptor-mediated inhibition. Phenytoin, car-bamazepine and, possibly, valproate (VPA) decrease high-frequency repetitive firing of action potentials by enhancing Na channel inactivation. Ethosuximide and VPA reduce a low threshold (T-type) Ca-channel current. The mechanisms of action of recently developed AEDs are less clear. Lamotrigine may decrease sustained high-frequency repetitive firing of voltage-dependent Na action potentials, and gabapentin (GBP) appears to bind to a specific binding site in the CNS with a restricted regional distribution. However, the identity of the binding site and the mechanism of action of GBP remain uncertain. The antiepileptic effect of felbamate may involve interaction at the strychnine-insensitive glycine site of the Af-methyl-D-aspartate receptor, but the mechanism of action is not yet proven.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/65554/1/j.1528-1157.1994.tb05955.x.pd

Is Body Fat a Predictor of Race Time in Female Long-Distance Inline Skaters?

Purpose: The aim of this study was to evaluate predictor variables of race time in female ultra-endurance inliners in the longest inline race in Europe. Methods: We investigated the association between anthropometric and training characteristics and race time for 16 female ultraendurance inline skaters, at the longest inline marathon in Europe, the ‘Inline One-eleven’ over 111 km in Switzerland, using bi- and multivariate analysis. Results: The mean (SD) race time was 289.7 (54.6) min. The bivariate analysis showed that body height (r=0.61), length of leg (r=0.61), number of weekly inline skating training sessions (r=-0.51)and duration of each training unit (r=0.61) were significantly correlated with race time. Stepwise multiple regressions revealed that body height, duration of each training unit, and age were the best variables to predict race time. Conclusion: Race time in ultra-endurance inline races such as the ‘Inline One-eleven’ over 111 km might be predicted by the following equation (r2 = 0.65): Race time (min) = -691.62 + 521.71 (body height, m) + 0.58 (duration of each training unit, min) + 1.78 (age, yrs) for female ultra-endurance inline skaters

The association between family and community social capital and health risk behaviours in young people: an integrative review

Background: Health risk behaviours known to result in poorer outcomes in adulthood are generally established in late childhood and adolescence. These ‘risky’ behaviours include smoking, alcohol and illicit drug use and sexual risk taking. While the role of social capital in the establishment of health risk behaviours in young people has been explored, to date, no attempt has been made to consolidate the evidence in the form of a review. Thus, this integrative review was undertaken to identify and synthesise research findings on the role and impact of family and community social capital on health risk behaviours in young people and provide a consolidated evidence base to inform multi-sectorial policy and practice.&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt; Methods: Key electronic databases were searched (i.e. ASSIA, CINAHL, Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, Database of Abstracts of Reviews of Effects, Embase, Medline, PsycINFO, Sociological Abstracts) for relevant studies and this was complemented by hand searching. Inclusion/exclusion criteria were applied and data was extracted from the included studies. Heterogeneity in study design and the outcomes assessed precluded meta-analysis/meta-synthesis; the results are therefore presented in narrative form.&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt; Results: Thirty-four papers satisfied the review inclusion criteria; most were cross-sectional surveys. The majority of the studies were conducted in North America (n=25), with three being conducted in the UK. Sample sizes ranged from 61 to 98,340. The synthesised evidence demonstrates that social capital is an important construct for understanding the establishment of health risk behaviours in young people. The different elements of family and community social capital varied in terms of their saliency within each behavioural domain, with positive parent–child relations, parental monitoring, religiosity and school quality being particularly important in reducing risk.&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt; Conclusions: This review is the first to systematically synthesise research findings about the association between social capital and health risk behaviours in young people. While providing evidence that may inform the development of interventions framed around social capital, the review also highlights key areas where further research is required to provide a fuller account of the nature and role of social capital in influencing the uptake of health risk behaviours.&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt

Quantifying the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) coupling to CO2 concentration and to the length of day variations

The El Ni\~no Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the Earth's strongest climate fluctuation on inter-annual time-scales and has global impacts although originating in the tropical Pacific. Many point indices have been developed to describe ENSO but the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) is considered the most representative since it links six different meteorological parameters measured over the tropical Pacific. Extreme values of MEI are correlated to the extreme values of atmospheric CO2 concentration rate variations and negatively correlated to equivalent scale extreme values of the length of day (LOD) rate variation. We evaluate a first order conversion function between MEI and the other two indexes using their annual rate of variation. The quantification of the strength of the coupling herein evaluated provides a quantitative measure to test the accuracy of theoretical model predictions. Our results further confirm the idea that the major local and global Earth-atmosphere system mechanisms are significantly coupled and synchronized to each other at multiple scales.Comment: Theoretical Applied Climatology (2012